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◆ ASX Sector Watch — How Global Events Hit Your Portfolio
Real-time cascade effects from macro events to specific ASX stocks.
◆ Sector Playbook — Where to Be Positioned
Actionable sector tilts based on the current regime. Updated each Sunday with the Macro Throttle.
| Sector | Signal | Why |
|---|
◆ Scenario Map — What Could Change the Picture
Probability-weighted scenarios for the weeks to months ahead. Plan for multiple futures, not just the base case.
◆ Catalyst Calendar — What's Coming & What It Means
Upcoming macro events with BAM's pre-positioned view. Updated daily at 6am AEST.
◆ Commitment of Traders — Where the Smart Money Is Positioned
Futures positioning data from US exchanges. Crowded trades often reverse sharply — this shows where the risk is building.
| Market | Positioning | Signal | What This Means |
|---|
◆ Credit, Yield Curves & Liquidity
Forward-looking market signals. Credit spreads and yield curves lead hard data by 4–8 weeks. Liquidity drives risk appetite across all asset classes.
◆ ASX Sector Performance vs Regime Signal
How each sector is performing relative to the current BAM regime signal. Green = confirming the thesis. Red = diverging.
| Sector | BAM Signal | Live | Day % | 1W % | 1M % | 3M % | Regime Alignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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◆ Active Thesis Watchlist
Live tracking of active macro-to-stock theses. Status updated each Sunday with the Throttle.
| Stock | Thesis | Signal | Timeframe | Status | Entry Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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◆ ASX XVI — Volatility Gauge
Live ASX volatility index (^AXVI) mapped to the BAM Clean / Cautious / Capitulation framework. Thresholds derived from 18-year backtest (2008–2026). Scale 0–60.
◆ Volatility Outlook — How Nervous Are Markets?
Compares short-term vs long-term fear. When short-term fear exceeds long-term, markets are expecting imminent turbulence.
Last updated: 12 April 2026 · 11:00am AEST
◆ XJO Options — Implied Vol Term Structure
ATM implied volatility across expiries. Front-loaded spike signals near-term event risk. Flat structure beyond = no incremental fear priced in.
Last updated: 13 April 2026 · 11:00am AEST · Spot 8,926
ATM Implied Volatility by Expiry
■ Lime columns = ±expected move (straddle/spot) · Line = ATM implied volatility
Term Structure Data
| Expiry | Days | Straddle | ±Move | ATM IV | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Apr | 3d | 130.5pts | ±1.46% | 20.2% | −0.6% |
| 21 May | 38d | 357.5pts | ±4.01% | 15.5% | +2.6% |
| 18 Jun | 66d | 469.5pts | ±5.26% | 15.5% | +2.1% |
| 16 Jul | 94d | 564.5pts | ±6.32% | 15.6% | +2.4% |
| 20 Aug | 129d | 664.0pts | ±7.44% | 15.6% | +3.2% |
What This Means
Front-loaded spike. Front expiry IV (20.2%) is elevated versus the 15.5% flat structure beyond. AU Employment data tomorrow (16 Apr) is being priced as the vol catalyst. Strip that out and the market is calm through August.
Skew: Consistent put skew across expiries (avg +2.6%) — sustained demand for downside protection. Participants are hedging, not speculating.
◆ ASX 50 — Daily Volatility Ranges
Asymmetric bands · 90% containment target. Buy Trade = lower boundary. Sell Trade = upper boundary. Zone = where today's price sits. ★ = high-conviction extreme (Pos% ≤10% or ≥90%).
Last updated: 13 April 2026 · 6:30am AEST
| Code | Name | Trend | Close | Chg% | Buy | Sell | Zone | Pos% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCL | Transurban | BEARISH | $13.67 | -1.87% | $13.61 | $14.23 | ★ BUY | 30% |
| ASX | ASX Limited | NEUTRAL | $58.71 | +2.19% | $55.03 | $59.87 | SELL | 65% |
| ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | BEARISH | $47.47 | +0.13% | $45.53 | $49.29 | HOLD | 51% |
| ANZ | ANZ Bank | NEUTRAL | $38.84 | +0.23% | $37.29 | $40.07 | HOLD | 54% |
| APA | APA Group | BULLISH | $9.99 | +0.71% | $9.71 | $10.16 | HOLD | 55% |
| BHP | BHP Group | NEUTRAL | $53.98 | -1.06% | $51.38 | $57.74 | HOLD | 45% |
| BXB | Brambles | NEUTRAL | $23.27 | -1.06% | $22.84 | $24.20 | HOLD | 41% |
| CBA | Commonwealth Bank | BULLISH | $183.38 | +0.47% | $176.06 | $188.38 | HOLD | 56% |
| CHC | Charter Hall | BEARISH | $20.17 | +1.05% | $18.81 | $21.04 | HOLD | 57% |
| COL | Coles Group | BULLISH | $22.40 | +0.67% | $21.58 | $22.86 | HOLD | 57% |
| CPU | Computershare | BEARISH | $29.28 | +0.31% | $28.01 | $30.37 | HOLD | 52% |
| CSL | CSL Limited | BEARISH | $139.19 | -0.74% | $134.42 | $146.04 | HOLD | 46% |
| CWY | Cleanaway Waste | BEARISH | $2.36 | -0.42% | $2.25 | $2.49 | HOLD | 48% |
| FMG | Fortescue | NEUTRAL | $20.26 | -1.32% | $19.38 | $21.68 | HOLD | 44% |
| GMG | Goodman Group | BEARISH | $27.97 | +0.54% | $26.32 | $29.26 | HOLD | 54% |
| IAG | Insurance Australia | BULLISH | $7.21 | +0.84% | $6.88 | $7.42 | HOLD | 54% |
| IEL | IDP Education | BEARISH | $3.99 | +0.50% | $3.69 | $4.25 | HOLD | 51% |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | BULLISH | $4.77 | 0.00% | $4.71 | $4.83 | HOLD | 50% |
| ILU | Iluka Resources | BULLISH | $7.43 | -0.13% | $6.78 | $8.10 | HOLD | 50% |
| JBH | JB Hi-Fi | BEARISH | $75.21 | -0.67% | $71.33 | $79.69 | HOLD | 50% |
| JHX | James Hardie | BEARISH | $29.09 | +0.62% | $26.83 | $30.99 | HOLD | 52% |
| LFG | Liberty Financial | BEARISH | $3.44 | -0.29% | $3.31 | $3.59 | HOLD | 48% |
| MGR | Mirvac Group | BEARISH | $1.73 | +0.87% | $1.65 | $1.78 | HOLD | 57% |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | BULLISH | $57.98 | -0.41% | $52.33 | $63.88 | HOLD | 50% |
| MPL | Medibank Private | NEUTRAL | $4.52 | +1.57% | $4.28 | $4.62 | HOLD | 60% |
| MQG | Macquarie Group | NEUTRAL | $225.00 | +0.50% | $210.80 | $235.74 | HOLD | 55% |
| NAB | NAB | BEARISH | $45.36 | -0.31% | $43.51 | $47.16 | HOLD | 52% |
| NEM | Newmont Corporation | NEUTRAL | $167.80 | -0.55% | $154.28 | $185.43 | HOLD | 45% |
| NHC | New Hope Coal | BULLISH | $5.18 | -2.63% | $4.75 | $5.98 | HOLD | 38% |
| NST | Northern Star | BEARISH | $24.48 | +0.04% | $20.68 | $28.85 | HOLD | 46% |
| ORG | Origin Energy | BULLISH | $12.38 | +0.24% | $11.86 | $12.92 | HOLD | 48% |
| ORI | Orica | BEARISH | $21.49 | +0.42% | $19.74 | $23.06 | HOLD | 52% |
| PME | Pro Medicus | BEARISH | $126.92 | -0.36% | $114.51 | $138.11 | HOLD | 54% |
| QAN | Qantas | BEARISH | $9.19 | +1.10% | $8.31 | $9.87 | HOLD | 54% |
| QBE | QBE Insurance | BULLISH | $22.46 | -0.49% | $21.98 | $23.16 | HOLD | 47% |
| QUB | Qube Holdings | BULLISH | $5.00 | +0.20% | $4.91 | $5.07 | HOLD | 52% |
| REA | REA Group | BEARISH | $158.36 | -0.58% | $149.74 | $167.91 | HOLD | 50% |
| RHC | Ramsay Health Care | BULLISH | $39.77 | -1.54% | $38.48 | $42.30 | HOLD | 43% |
| RIO | Rio Tinto | NEUTRAL | $171.23 | -0.31% | $162.45 | $181.07 | HOLD | 48% |
| RMD | ResMed | BEARISH | $32.28 | -1.22% | $31.48 | $33.88 | HOLD | 43% |
| S32 | South32 | NEUTRAL | $4.63 | +1.09% | $4.21 | $4.95 | HOLD | 54% |
| SGP | Stockland | BEARISH | $4.12 | +1.23% | $3.94 | $4.19 | HOLD | 62% |
| SHL | Sonic Healthcare | BEARISH | $19.77 | -0.50% | $18.93 | $20.80 | HOLD | 48% |
| STO | Santos | BULLISH | $7.90 | -0.63% | $7.64 | $8.31 | HOLD | 43% |
| SUN | Suncorp Group | BULLISH | $16.18 | +1.19% | $15.43 | $16.55 | HOLD | 58% |
| TLS | Telstra | BULLISH | $5.41 | 0.00% | $5.31 | $5.51 | HOLD | 50% |
| WBC | Westpac | NEUTRAL | $42.77 | +0.28% | $41.07 | $43.96 | HOLD | 57% |
| WDS | Woodside Energy | BULLISH | $33.28 | -0.15% | $30.88 | $36.17 | HOLD | 46% |
| WES | Wesfarmers | BEARISH | $76.32 | -0.26% | $74.30 | $78.65 | HOLD | 49% |
| WOW | Woolworths | BULLISH | $36.83 | -0.94% | $35.76 | $38.52 | HOLD | 48% |
| WTC | WiseTech Global | BEARISH | $37.63 | -2.56% | $33.95 | $42.44 | HOLD | 50% |
◆ Inflation Pipeline — What's Coming for Consumer Prices
Commodity price surges flow through to consumer inflation in waves. Here's what's already in the pipeline for Australian CPI.
◆ Research Reports
Daily and weekly intelligence published by Broadacre Macro.